A Huffalump did his business here...: July 2006

Saturday, July 29, 2006

What could go wrong with oil stocks ....

Google settles "Click Fraud" claim

Link Here


Go Google!

Trend - emerging markets

A different take on things... deflation ????

Link Here

An excerpt:

"Central banks are focused on inflation which means deflation is the risk."

On being Mr Market

Link Here

This article is actually very interesting, because a friend of mine behaves the exact same way =P

A short article on inflation

Link Here


Just added this here cos it looks like I can learn something about inflation.. article speaks about inflation proofing your stuff..??


A rather compelling excerpt:


"Inflation isn't something only Bernanke should be worried about. Even moderate inflation can take a heavy toll on your nest egg. Let's say inflation averages 3% over the next 30 years--a rate not far from the Fed's long-term target. By the end of those three decades, $100,000 would be worth just $40,000 in today's dollars. Higher inflation poses an even more serious threat. If inflation clocked in at 6%, the purchasing power of $100,000 would fall to just $17,000. At 10%, $100,000 would be worth a meager $5,700 in today's dollars."

10 Stocks for the next ten years

Friday, July 28, 2006

Interesting Microsoft boo boo

Link Here

This is interesting, in reaching new areas, on the one hand people luad about how Xbox is giving PSP fits....

But this is the real result ;)

Microsoft Word has a bug

But as knowledge of the Word flaw has spread, researchers like Ullrich fear that it may be used in a more widespread attack. The vulnerability can be exploited to run unauthorized software on PCs, although users must first be first tricked into opening a maliciously encoded Word document.


Link Here

Microsoft Vista is here

Link Here


BETA of course =P


Gates stressed that virtualization is a key focus for Microsoft, which has been building out its portfolio to compete with pure-play virtualization companies such as VMWare Inc. and XenSource Inc.


Bull... go Xen

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Microsoft Going for CRM ?

Link Here

Looks like MS is going in many directions.

Perhaps it is going the way of Oracle?

I dunno, but if MS divests from the riskier stocks (like hard core tech), it may actually do better.

I am of course coming from the doomsday herald that open source will one day overtake MS or what ever commercial entity there is out there =P

A Negative perspective of China's Growth ?

On Ben Bernanke

Link Here

From the Washington Post


An excerpt:

"When Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke reports to Congress this week on the U.S. economic outlook, he will seek to explain his thinking more clearly to another important audience that has misunderstood him at times this year: the financial markets."

An Interview with Charlie Munger

Link Here


Really, this is one of those articles that you can read reread and reread.

The points make alot of sense, and its a good advice!

Bruce Berkowitz

Financial Report of SGX

Link Here


I did'nt know i was reading a financial report.. until I got to the figures lol

SGX China A share markets

Link Here



... what in the world is an A share???

Oil is going up up up

Baidu.com Inc. Q2 2006 Earnings Conference Call Transcript (BIDU)

Microsoft Moving into Healthcare

Link Here

and another

Azyxxi


Apparently Azyxxi is built on .Net framework and is integrated with MSSQL

More news:

Link Here

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

What is wrong with Value Investing

The Story of Soros

Buffet betting on Insurance

Sunday, July 23, 2006

A Chinese FInace Company

biofuel Alternative Energy

This post is just to remind myself of some things:

1) bio-ethanol gasoline or gasohol - from food crops like sugar and cassava

2) biodiesel, from oil-producing crops like coconut, castor kernel and oil palm.

Thailand, India and China and Japan, have all launched national gasohol policies.

Work is also underway in Indonesia and Philippines to "go gasohol"

Thailand started in 1985.

- 4000 stations serving alternative fuel.
Currently they blend 10 percent ethanol into gasoline (mandated by the end of the year.)

Import ban on MTBE (the petrol based fuel additive that ethanol replaces.)

Japan's Environment Ministry is following suit. Proposing a plan to require the car fleet to use 10 percent ethanol by 2030.

China is making 10 percent blends mandatory in 5 provinces. (this accounts for 16 percent of the nations passenger cars). This is part of a national energy policy unveiled in January, requiring China to boost renewable consumption to a fifth of total consumption by 2020.

In Philippines, biodiesel is known as cocodiesel.

Indonesia intends to raise and invest 35 billion SGD over five years for biofuel production and distribution.

Indonesia is focused on biodiesel from palm oil.

Apparently 3/4 of the biofuel funds will be used for oil palm production???

Indonesia wants to replicate Malaysia's succes in the Envo Diesel programme which is expected to produce up to 500,000 tonnes of biodiesel made up of 5 % palm-oil-derived diesel and 95% petroleum-derived diesel.


Virgin forests may be cleared for plantations?

And this is tricky because in biofuel production, the effect on carbon dioxide intensity is actually greater due to the removal of absorption of CO2 by the forests.

Another concern is that fuel-crops may compete with food-crops which maybe morally ambiguous given malnutrition and under-nutrition (there is a difference in the region.?)

However the article cites that the use of Jatropha may be a good comprommise as it grows in poor soil and will not compete with food-crops... still what about the virgin forests?


Reference:
The article was written by: Chua Hearn Yuit and Jardine Wall For the Straits Times.
Source: Straits Times Saturday, July 22 2006 S14 "Review"

Friday, July 14, 2006

Health Morals Cost Price Genentech

Link Here

Avastin cost $55 a dose while Lucentis cost $2000 a dose. NIH study to reveal if Avastin could be as effective as Lucentis. Interesting to see how this pans out.

China Inflation CPI Economics Exploitation Outsourcing

Link Here


I found this rather funny and interesting. Outsourcing has been bandied around like it was some new invention when it was simply a cost cutting exploitation exercise. This article is interesting in that it gives a good overview. How prices are going up in China itself, how the yuan is going up. And how that is going to cause inflation in other countries relying on China's cheap manufacturing base. About how being a huge country might mess up the CPI's interpretation.

Interesting stuff for the budding economics student.

IPO Hertz

Hertz looks pretty successful But I have'nt looked at it in detail, though it is a name I recognised. So it might be of interest to some people =)

Myself I have no moola lol.


On moola, those with the money should take the current Middle East turmoil to buy stocks that they think is good as prices are depressed now. It is all about power. Now if that sound mercenary? Currently, the middle eastern oil companies are cashing in. While stocks tumble, oil prices go up. Like crazy. Oh and its not like alternative energy resources are not available. Figure that out. Even the recent Nomura Investors meet, one of the highlight is that 10-15 Middle Eastern investors are coming.

Whatever.

Though as usual, check out everything, and don't put your entire fortune in stocks ;)

Banro opportunity gold Africa

The main article is here


And this is for all te greedy people here. Myself included. =P

Essentially Banro is a conglomeration of various investors who betted on Congo. Millions were lost in the 90's. This is an example of political instability, destroying economy (or it may have saved them from exploitation).

Thing is, on reading this. The treasure is in the natural resources. Which mean the natural environment will be screwed.

Okay fine, some of you don't care about the environment. Fine. Lets talk about the people. Assuming the UN manages to stabilise the situation, did anyone betting on Congo, put in anything to help? No, the 19,000 soldiers did. And when peace is finally here, the machines come and draw the minerals from the land. Leaving the people of the land as poor as they were.

Here is hoping that the government ruling would be wise and not get bullied into giving away their resources cheaply. 3rd world nations has been exploited enough. May the lessons of the past temper their decisions. Education and not blatent extraction and cashing of natural resources should be key.

Having said that this buy is a bit of a moral dilliema. But if the exploitation will still go on. The only recourse is to get the corporates into shape. And that can only happen if you invest enough and control the decisions the corporate makes. That is a tough call. But I think it is the only one. I actually think that might have been a better thing for Buffett to do if he really wanted to make the world a better place.

I think volunteerism is key. It stems the tide. But control is what turns the tide.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

A Review of Genentech

Genentech Got It Done



I think this is one of those strange cases where the company post profits, seems to be oki but it still gets bashed, mainly its main line did not perform as well.

Probably a good study (I have no monies to do anything else =)), as this articles analyses the overall view and tries to put up the case why it is good.



An alternate Investment strategy

This is a book Review on the "The Little Book that Beats the Market”

The Secrets of Warren Buffett's Psyche

Link Here


Short and sweet =)

Nygren's Four Rules for Evaluating Slumping Funds

Link Here


To be read

A speech given by Bill Nygren, 2006 Morningstar Conference

Link Here


Sounds interesting

Bad Apples?

Link Here


They made a boo boo.

Bad marketing.

Aviva may announce AmerUs takeover: source

Link Here


Britain's biggest insurer, is expected to announce a deal to buy U.S. insurer AmerUs Group Co. for about $2.9 billion in cash as early as Thursday, a source close to the situation said.

Nokia and the Standards Battle in China (NOK, CHL, CHU)

Link Here


A very insightful reading into the telco industry in China + its players.


Essentially you have Nikia and Qualcomm. China Mobile, China Unicom.


You have:
Ministry of Information Industries, or MII, the regulatory entity that oversees the telecommunications industry.

State Administration for Radio, Film, and Television, or SARFT

And two standards:
DVB-H or MediaFlo phones

or a local standard
Digital Multimedia Broadcast standard (DMB)


The article is mainly speculation, but a very interesting take!

Below is an excerpt:




The more visionary of those advertisers and agencies are taking a long, hard look at mobile TV (MoTV), China's increasingly mobile population, and the ability to get more and more meaningful viewer information and feedback through mobile. This, understandably, worries the folks in the TV business. Even if they wind up supplying the content to mobile TV, they're going to have to share their ad revenues with the carriers, and they'll at best be in a weakened position when it comes to setting their rates.

We're talking about potentially millions and eventually billions of RMB moving out of broadcast TV and into MoTV, more than enough to support the medium and to use China to make a global case for MoTV.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Microsoft can really bleed....

Google to Hire 1000 in Michigan

Link Here



Go Google!!!!

Monday, July 10, 2006

Nomura's Asia Equity Forum 2006

Link here


It starts today, got wind of it from the business times.

Not sure whats the value of it.

Apparently many middle eastern investors from the recent oil spike are looking to invest in Asia?

Sunday, July 09, 2006

MS Windows FS will not be released?

Link


hmmmmm

The Rise of India

Link


On India, more on the sociopolitical side.

Other Stuff - 060709

A brighter Future

A thumb ups for solar energy.

This articles discusses the potential of solar companies in the light of rising oil prices. Alot depend on how well you know the market. The fossil doomsday message has been propaganded since I was a kid, so I dunno.

In anycase something to think about. Note that the author (Stephen Martin) tends to be more macro in his views =)


Value Investment

This articles here seems like value investing. The claim is that large companies hold more value that small companies.

The problem I see here is that the so caled large companies listed here are mostly tech. Tech companies are notorious for crumbling really fast.

I believe in value investing. The question is what are your values ;)

More news on the auto alliance

Watery Stocks

Link

A watery take on stocks =) Seriously, water is a resource that is so vital. No doubt it cannot grow once it is maxed out. But thats why you should buy now. In future it will just be a cash cow. Now it is just potential, fully valued stocks are only for dividends, this stock still has value to yield.

Should We Buy when Buffet Sells ?

Link


After all, market experts will tell you it's a red flag when you see a major insider exodus from a stock -- especially by an insider who has been so crucial to the success of a company.



Perhaps it is agood time to buy class B shares!!! =)



"If you buy now you are getting Warren Buffett for free, and that is an attractive value right there," says Lowenstein.

What A Company's Action Can Tell You - Also actions in the fuel market

What $21 billion can teach you


I like Jubak's articles, always very insightful.

In this article, learn about current fuel companie's movements and also a general concept. inferring from a company's action. A very subtle but powerful skill. Of course you must get your financials right first ;)

Insurances You can do without

Link


Great article. =) Although I think it applies more to America, it is an important concept to have and hold on to and learn while you are managing your finances =) Insurance is an investment and a definite mover of your cash flows. Watch it.

Profit Loss Sans Interest?

link

Ouick warning to not forget the interest that companies have to pay when they borrow loans form banks. Factor that in when you look at retain earnings. This is actually something that you learn when looking at Financial Reports, but apparently companies do not have to disclose it? I am not too sure about that (or the accounting policies for that matter). But it is always a good thing to know how much loan your company of interest is taking =)

Memory Tech Watch - Herald of Change to come?

The link is here.


Is flash memory bewcoming the medium of choice? If it is you may want to put some stock in it =)

excerpt:
With a decrease in price per gigabyte (GB) of more than 80 percent over the past three years and with the high growth in wireless data the need for new and addition memory could exceed the growth of the hardware device market that uses flash for its memory. The current market in flash memory is about $25 billion annually and its forecast is about 40 billion by 2010.


....

Saifun is an intellectual properties company which its revenues come in three forms: licenses, royalties and support. This type of model has been very successes for our model portfolios in the past. The three previous companies that had core business from intellectual property we investment into our portfolio's were Qualcomm (QCOM) in1997 at 3.31 per share and still holds a position. Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARMHY) in 9/29/1999 @ 9.60 and holds half a position and Rambus (RMBS) in 1998 which appreciated about 350% in 2000 and we sold the position in the model portfolio when Intel stopped supporting the Rambus architecture late and 2000 and in 2001.





Saifun is the company that they think has what it take. Again this is not based on financials but on technological development. The usual hazards apply.


Edit:

More on flash tech stocks. Again Saifun is looked at.

The link is here

Saturday, July 08, 2006

BlackBerry.. A market to watch?


Link to the clone wars.....



If you are looking at the wireless technologies market, you might be interested in this =) Just to get an overview and just to get a feel of what is happening strategically.

If you have been watching Boeing

Link here

An excerpt:

Investors pay a premium for an industrial company's shares when they believe it is halfway through a business up-cycle and recent earnings growth will extend at least three years into the future. They pay absolute top dollar when they think a company whose growth has been cyclical in the past has found a way to smooth out its ups and downs and bring in steadier cash flows through diversification efforts.




This is a pretty good read. I do not know much about Boeing, but I do understand the importance of supply chain management. Hence this Boeing example strikes a cord. The author is detailed and really read it to know the common pitfalls and ideals of investors =)

Quick Summary on Chinese Stocks - 060709

Wrapping up China?

North Korean Missile Test Makes PetroChina a Buy (PTR)

One interesting such deal is that unlisted China National Petroleum Corp. [CNPC] might buy US$3bn worth of shares of Russia’s Rosneft when it lists in Moscow and London around the middle of July.

Interesting =) the russian stocks that is =)





US-Traded China Internet Stocks - Quarterly Revenue Growth

Heh.. there is Baidu!!!




The View from Hong Kong: What to Buy and Sell

The actual site is actually here??


This might be interested if you are doing stuff on the Hang Seng Index.




G8 Summit

More eonomical/political than business... ah well =)

Peter Lynch - A good investor to look at?

Recommending a Stock for coverage on Growth Stock Watch

Cosi, Inc. to Present at CIBC Consumer Growth Conference

Link

COSI will be giving a talk, it will be available via webcast.

Date and time:
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
Chairman William Forrest and President and CEO Kevin Armstrong will present at 9:05 AM ET.

Cosi (http://www.getcosi.com) is the premium convenience restaurant that offers breakfast, lunch, afternoon coffee, dinner and dessert menus full of creative, fresh, flavorful foods and beverages. Cosi has developed featured foods that are built around a secret, generations-old recipe for crackly crust flatbread. This artisan bread is freshly baked in front of customers throughout the day in open flame stone hearth ovens prominently located in each of the restaurants.



I'm not actually sure why i am posting this, but it is nice to hear what these companies have to say... at least for me since I am utterly green =P

India IT Companies Specialising in Outsourced Works - A booming Industry?

Link is here


India's $23 billion software industry is likely to see a rise of 25-28 percent in exports for the year to March 2007 as demand for outsourcing remains strong, the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM) said in June.

The top three Indian software exporters Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., Infosys Technologies Ltd. and Wipro Ltd. all boast more than a billion dollars in annual revenue.

Last year, a $2.2 billion outsourcing deal from ABN AMRO Bank was split between Indian firms Infosys, TCS and Patni Computer Systems Ltd. and global companies Accenture and IBM.



It seems that the Indian outsourcing business is booming.... but i dunno... it seems like a cop out. The programmer is just paid less and less.

Cost cutting should not be a key business strategy, at least not in the long term as it is a finite advantage!

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Valuating Technology Companies - even if Buffett shuns it?

The link is here

Warren Buffett shuns technology companies, because he believes "they are beyond his circle of competence". That is great wisdom because "knowing what we know and don't know", believe it or not, is a trait that not many people can claim.



Interesting take.

The stance is essentially, tech stocks are more volatile, but is still a controllable beast. Some things of course I do not agree with like how SUN is hurt by Linux. Sun is a mess because of the direction it chose. MS is going down to Linux. Its just a matter of time ;) Oh, and if Linux fails, there is FreeBSD waiting in the wings. Ever tried PCBSD? Did i mention it is very window-esque? Oh and if all fails? Thats the beauty of FREE code (and most open source), it always returns ;) Unleash the phoenix.

5 Stocks to Watch

Stocks on the China Front

Stagflation - Is the economy due for a slow down?

Article here


Interesting article, essentially about how a situation where slow growth and high inflation together can spoil your day as an investor.

Definitely a good read for the economics student =)

Autos in China

Just a short article on the auto industry in China, China has a home grown company called Chery Automobile

China and India to move closer??

Monday, July 03, 2006

Warren Buffet to give wealth to Gates Foundation

What will all this mean? I mean it is great in terms of philantrophical terms, but 85%? .... WOW...

Some takes on this move:

Warren Buffet - True to Form

Yet more about where the money is actually going... good for perspectives =)

All about Buffet


Yet more perspectives....
What Gates hopes to do with the money is a bigger deal, however. He plans to use it to cure the 20 most fatal diseases in the world and, while he's at it, make sure that every American has a decent education.

Lessons to learn from MS failure in China?

Articles by a China Expert???

UBS takes a step into China

Sunday, July 02, 2006

MS Office delayed again

SGX works with Liaoning - China

Saturday, July 01, 2006

For those interested in Reit - Closing date 3rd Jul

FERS GLOBAL DEPOSITORY RECEIPT LISTING FACILITY

India Equities on SGX

India Equities - Now on SGX? - Mostly an announcement =)

More details on this fund.

Nice round up

Google Back Above Water

Read more about it here!!!


Not a super improvement, but at least higher than the start of the year.

Now i do not buy google stocks, but google has been good to Open Source. AND it is one of the few companies that seem to respect the customer's privacy! So I hope to see Google do well =D

Quote:

Google is promoting Google checkout aggressively. For every $1 merchants spend on Google's AdWords search-advertising program, they can receive $10 worth of processing through Google Checkout. Consumers also can get discounts for participating merchants for using the service.

"Google Checkout illustrates the company's product development strengths to 1) improve core search platform and 2) to target opportunities in adjacent markets,'' writes Merrill Lynch analyst Justin Post, who rates Google as a buy, in a note to clients today. "Wide adoption of Checkout would enable deeper relationships with merchants and greater affinity for use of Google AdWords.''

Google News!! - 060702


Apparently google's new payment system may give Amazon's payment system a run for its money =)


Rafe Needleman blogs that it (Google Checkout) is a very real threat to Amazon's Amazon Payments

So its not just Paypal feeling the heat =)


Google is also backing FON, a spanish company:


"Spanish firm FON began a push this week to create a global wireless Internet community made up of people that could earn cash by turning home or business Internet connections into "hot spots."

FON said on Monday it would practically give away one million Internet routers that would let hot spot owners share in small daily fees charged to roaming computer users.


Mr Crid Yu of Google's Head of Sales in HK reveals:

"Internet search giant Google is looking to diversify its offerings for advertisers and will be focusing on mobile phones.

"I think mobile has the most advertising potential," said Mr Crid Yu, Google's head of sales for Hong Kong and South-east Asia. "Mobile is an important area for Google and we are pushing partnerships worldwide." "


The routers would be available in Europe for five euros or in the United States for five dollars, according to the Madrid-based company. "

....

The Infocomm Development Authority reported that in March, Singapore's mobile penetration rate reached 100.8 per cent, with the number of mobile phone subscriptions at 4.38 million — an indication that some Singaporeans own multiple mobile phones.



Why google is stringent on the ads placed on google ads

Apply will not release video ipod till next year??

What would happen if Buffett died?

Good Articles

Good Articles

- Over here I will put articles which I feel teach something, too many for multi-ple postings =P


The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Failing the Average Investor

This articles talks about how the Dow Jones should not be treated as some sacred cow.






Make your Investment Returns Take Off

Good advise for new investors... and old alike =)






Dealing With Market Corrections: Ten Do's and Don'ts

Many things to learn here =) But more for speculators, but even value investors would benefit me guess.




Relax, A Volatile Stock Market Is Your Dearest Friend

On volatility =)




Using Discounted Closed Ended Funds designed to Increase Income and Reduce Risk

Three Advices That I’d Like to Give to My Younger Self


Stuff to learn!!




The Four Horsemen of The Capital Markets

This is a more macro view that looks at disease, war, deflation and nationalism.

Again something for the economics student? Though it is a bit short, given the broad topics it seeks to cover, though the author has noted that this is a growing paper.

Interesting read!!





Taking Your Annual Financial Pulse

Some good principles about financial planning





Seven Tips to Improve Your Cash Flow

On improving your cash flow =)





Emotions Free Investing

Title says it all =)


Warren Buffett's Wisdom

Good Advise for Investing

conocophilip

Buffet Meeting

The article is here


Heh i think it provides a good feel of how a buffet meeting might go... but some things picked out.

Iscar Metalworking??


"Buffett is going to Israel in September to look at similar businesses to buy." - So mabbe time to watch? =)


Important things learnt:

- alwasy learn as much as you can. Buffett says he dosen't like the deal that was put to him, but he still wants to talk so he can learn from him. Now this is not nerw for magic players ;) If you are playing a losing match, you can do 2 things:

1) Stop playing, concede, so that the opponent does not see your deck
2) Drag out the game but do no plays (so your opponent can see nothing), but you can see what your opponent can do.

Interesting ;) I am sure there are varients for poker as well.

Another quote:

" Buffett said, "It begins with fundamentals and then it turns into speculation. What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end."

Buffett said once people get envious about something that is hot (like commodities and housing), nobody can determine the peak because it's unknown how
outrageous the prices can go."


Moral of the story, beware of speculation =D

Valueing Microsoft

The article is here


My own take on MSFT.

The article lists 3 mkts:


Windows, Office, and Servers


On the OS front, I have no doubts that GNU/Linux will eventually overtake it. THrow Vista or anything "new".

Transparent windows?? Been there done that.

Ribbons? erm they are called Tabs.


Office?

Windows is doing a major shift in the GUI.


Look people are trying to mimic the MS Office look and feel because it was successful.

MS is taking a big risk. It is throwing away the one reason it is successful. GUI is big with people, you don't mess with that.

Sure the Apple people always look cooler. But there is a reason why they are niche ;)

Servers???

Dead and gone.


On the new fronts:

Games : Search : Others

Games, I think the Xbox is cool, but I doubt the market, not the product.

Search, google is in a bad position??? how so? And MS wants to do search? Too late, the pigeons ate the crumbs along time ago, and you know what Google's policy was always at oods with MS policy. MS:more features. Google:simplicity. Nuff said.

Others: This is probably the most important move MS must make. Where to diversify, the OS software mkt is closing in terms of expansion space, only so much features you can stuff, eventually when GNU stuff takes off. Why would MS still be relevant? And this I think is the make or break for MS. It is in a very healthy state, but growth? profitable definitely. Probably profitable beyond my lifetime ;) But share value? I'm not aure I want to put my stocks on that one.

Lunch with Buffet

Dollar falls sharply


The Dollar has fallen shortly after interest announcement.


Quoted from the article:

"The focus on the Federal Reserve in recent days has masked mounting evidence in Europe that eurozone interest rates will also rise. "

/dev/autos

Just figured autos may be an interesting market so a tracker here... feel free to post =)


GM alliance with Renault and Nissan


GM alliance with Renault and Nissan - what led to it?

/dev/russia

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